Bull and bear agree on the facts. They disagree on whether 24% EBITDA was the floor or the peak.

• The accrual story. Revenue 1.8×'d FY24→FY25 to $294M; operating margin hit a record 24%; ROCE printed 55%. Two clean QIPs ($24M in 2024 at $14.5/share, $34M in 2025) erased net debt before the SESL build. Promoters bought $0.8M across six trades through the drawdown — including Vintex Tools at $1.26 in February 2026 — and sold zero.
• The cash story. Three years of work produced $95M of cumulative PAT and $23M of CFO — a 24% conversion ratio. FY25 alone: $48M profit on $2.3M operating cash. DSO peaked near 190 days as PM-KUSUM receivables ballooned to $185M — almost six months of revenue.
• The reset. Q4 FY26 op margin collapsed to 9.7%; PAT down 65% YoY on record $92M revenue. Management's margin guide misses run 4-of-5: 24% guided, 16% delivered FY26. Stock at $5.82 is down 59% from January 2025.

Cycle peak is in the rear-view; the capex commitment is still in front.

$128M is committed to a 2.2 GW captive solar-cell plant at SESL — 4× Oswal's commissioned 0.57 GW — to defend gross margin as PLI-funded Indian cell capacity scales from 13 GW to 50–55 GW by FY27. The full plant has slipped to H1 FY27. Q4 FY26 collected $45M of receivables back, lifting FY26 CFO to $13M from $2.3M — encouraging, but the test repeats every quarter from here.

An auditor change, a related-party plant audit, and a board that thinned out at the wrong time.

• Auditor swap dated 7 May 2026. Filed the same day as the Q4 FY26 PAT collapse. The FY26 statutory audit report is due on or before 30 May. Routine SEBI rotation is neutral; a non-routine resignation reframes the entire governance read in one filing.
• Related-party audit at SESL. The $128M Shakti Energy Solutions plant — the company's largest capital allocation in 13 years — is audited by 'S.B. Patidar & Co.' The surname matches the controlling family. SESL is not classified as a related party in disclosures.
• Board churn at the audit committee. Three audit chairs in FY25; the current chair, appointed 20 March 2025, missed every FY25 meeting. The Risk Committee is chaired by the MD himself. Average independent-director tenure: 1.4 years. The latest QIP monitoring report flags $12M unutilised.

Half the open questions resolve in dated, observable events between now and August.

• 11 May 2026 — Q4 conference call. First chance for management to explain the auditor change and the 9.7% margin print on the same line. Highest-impact single-day event in the calendar.
• ≤30 May — FY26 audit report. Clean opinion vs qualified is binary on the bear's primary trigger. A clean report removes the largest overhang in one filing; a modification would force estimates and confidence to reset.
• Aug 2026 — Q1 FY27 print + SESL commissioning. Both sides agree the threshold is CFO/PBT > 0.7× with DSO < 150. The first 0.5 GW DCR cell line targets Q1 FY27; the full 2.2 GW has slipped to H1 FY27, with some statements pointing to March 2027.

From asset-light pump assembler to vertically-integrated solar PV manufacturer in three quarters.

Before: A century-old industrial pump maker (incorporated 1995, brand since 1982) trading under $0.70 for two decades; PM-KUSUM lifted the cycle from FY21 onward as the company won the highest share in agricultural solar tenders.

Pivot: Q3 FY25 — management cited DCR solar-cell shortage as the binding constraint and announced the $128M 2.2 GW SESL plant, taking integration from 4-of-5 layers to 5-of-5 and adding commodity-cell risk to the balance sheet.

Today: Q3 FY26 broke the narrative — PAT down 69% YoY, op margin halved to 11%, stock −14% intraday on a 'deliberate slowdown' framing. The next chapter answers whether SESL ramps before Indian cell capacity quadruples and commoditises the arbitrage.